Historical transactions / simulated inventory As of 2011-11-30sl-61f664e09e9c9098
85123AAXHigh confidence
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Home accents · Smooth demand · North Star Homewares
Inventory position156 u
30-day forecast486 u
Days of supply10.6
Risk before order97.3%
Policy recommendationReorder now
252 units by 30 Nov 2011. Quantity includes MOQ and case-pack rules.
Demand, forecast, and projected inventory
Observed weekly demand, evaluated interval, and simulated inventory.
Historical simulation
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Inventory accounting
Inputs reconcile to the inventory position.
96 on hand+120 on order−18 backorders−42 allocated=156
Reorder point269
Order-up-to408
MOQ24
Case pack12
Recommendation evidence
Each factor carries a source type and policy effect.
ObservedLast positive transaction dateThe date supports the data-sufficiency check; it does not change the order quantity by itself.2011-11-30
Derived28-day demand paceThe protection-period mean is 292 units before the uncertainty buffer.412 units (+18% vs prior period)
DerivedProtection-period uncertaintyThe 95% target sets an order-up-to level of 408 units.292 expected; up to 407 units
AssumptionInventory positionThe gap to the order-up-to level is 252 units.156 units
AssumptionLead time and review cadenceLonger lead time, lower reliability, greater variability, or a longer review interval raises the protection requirement.North Star Homewares: 11 + 7 days; 93% reliability
Policy comparison
Same holdout demand and fixed supplier draws.
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Conditions that change this recommendation
The calculation should be run again when one of these conditions occurs.
The next 28-day demand differs from the scenario forecast by more than 15%.
Lead time moves outside 8-14 days.
A receipt, allocation, or backorder changes the inventory position.
The unfilled-demand mode changes between backorders and lost sales.