Historical transactions / simulated inventory As of 2011-11-30sl-61f664e09e9c9098
85123AAXHigh confidence

White Hanging Heart T-light Holder

Home accents · Smooth demand · North Star Homewares

Inventory position156 u
30-day forecast486 u
Days of supply10.6
Risk before order97.3%
Policy recommendationReorder now

252 units by 30 Nov 2011. Quantity includes MOQ and case-pack rules.

Demand, forecast, and projected inventory

Observed weekly demand, evaluated interval, and simulated inventory.

Historical simulation
Demand and projected inventory for 85123A85123A. 24 periods. Final forecast 122 units. Final projected inventory 0 units. Reorder point 208 units.DEMAND / UNITSObservedForecastIntervalInventory07915808-08: observed demand 97 units.08-15: observed demand 75 units.08-22: observed demand 88 units.08-29: observed demand 84 units.09-05: observed demand 110 units.09-12: observed demand 129 units.09-19: observed demand 133 units.09-26: observed demand 108 units.10-03: observed demand 106 units.10-10: observed demand 84 units.10-17: observed demand 78 units.10-24: observed demand 107 units.10-31: observed demand 128 units.11-07: observed demand 122 units.11-14: observed demand 113 units.11-21: observed demand 98 units.11-28: observed demand 106 units.FORECAST STARTPROJECTED INVENTORY / UNITS0208ROP 208+12008-0809-0510-0310-3111-2812-2601-16Use arrow keys to inspect data. Press Enter or Space to pin a value. Press Escape to clear.

Inventory accounting

Inputs reconcile to the inventory position.

96 on hand+120 on order18 backorders42 allocated=156
Reorder point269
Order-up-to408
MOQ24
Case pack12

Recommendation evidence

Each factor carries a source type and policy effect.

  • ObservedLast positive transaction dateThe date supports the data-sufficiency check; it does not change the order quantity by itself.2011-11-30
  • Derived28-day demand paceThe protection-period mean is 292 units before the uncertainty buffer.412 units (+18% vs prior period)
  • DerivedProtection-period uncertaintyThe 95% target sets an order-up-to level of 408 units.292 expected; up to 407 units
  • AssumptionInventory positionThe gap to the order-up-to level is 252 units.156 units
  • AssumptionLead time and review cadenceLonger lead time, lower reliability, greater variability, or a longer review interval raises the protection requirement.North Star Homewares: 11 + 7 days; 93% reliability

Policy comparison

Same holdout demand and fixed supplier draws.

Backtest policy comparisonUnit fill rate: Baseline 88.7%; Proposed 95.8%. Stockout days: Baseline 9 days; Proposed 3 days. Average on-hand: Baseline 178 units; Proposed 193 units.BaselineProposedBars use each row’s scaleUnit fill rate+7.1% better88.7%95.8%Stockout days−6 days better9 days3 daysAverage on-hand+15 units worse178 units193 unitsUse arrow keys to inspect data. Press Enter or Space to pin a value. Press Escape to clear.

Conditions that change this recommendation

The calculation should be run again when one of these conditions occurs.

  • The next 28-day demand differs from the scenario forecast by more than 15%.
  • Lead time moves outside 8-14 days.
  • A receipt, allocation, or backorder changes the inventory position.
  • The unfilled-demand mode changes between backorders and lost sales.
  • Forecast WAPE rises above 50% or interval coverage falls below 75%.
  • The return disposition changes between non-sellable and sellable.